In our last LED Confidential Espresso Shot of the year, Mike and David discuss some of the key challenges which might be at the forefront of UK local economic development in 2025. Will 2025 be a signature year for realising bold progress in devolution, and can that catalyse a step-change in inclusive growth (with a greater emphasis on inclusion)? Can renewed ambitions for strategic planning stick, and even if they do, how far can planning reform on its own fix broken housing markets? How far will global turmoil distract and disrupt even the best laid plans…?
Have a listen to the shot and tell us what you think. But most of all, at this time of year, the three of us at LEDC must conclude by wishing all our guests and listeners season’s greetings and all the best for 2025, whatever it may bring!
Are we on the cusp of a new devolution revolution?
With the Devolution White Paper and accompanying Bill, and the prospects of a generational system change through local government unitarisation in England, David and Mike hope for reforms at the more ambitious end of the devolution spectrum, and similar resets in the devolved nations.
Can local and regional institutions keep the focus of their advocacy on powers and delivery instruments, resourcing (including fiscal devolution), and improving cross-boundary and multi-tier collaboration? Or will sub-national reform debates become fixated and diverted by maps and boundaries, as so often in the past? Fiscal devolution has been the dog that hasn’t barked, as we explored in our November episode with Jack Shaw. Getting a no-brainer, relatively risk light (in the political sense) Tourist Tax over the line would hardly be revolutionary but might be a litmus test of how permissive devolution’s 2025 chapter will be.
Will renewed strategic planning stick, and can planning reform deliver our housing targets?
Mike and David worry that without cross-party support, the renewed emphasis on strategic planning might be implemented inconsistently and half-heartedly in some areas and may not endure a future change of national government.
There is also a ‘necessary but insufficient’ concern with regards to delivering housing supply targets. Strategic planning and broader reform of the planning system needs, at the least, to be accompanied by reforms of housing and mortgage finance, new affordable homes regimes, and significant increases in construction capacity and productivity. Putting the complete package together locally requires a much more serious look at construction than appears to be the case in many geographies. Construction constraints will be particularly acute where there are major infrastructure programmes already envisaged. Managing the two in tandem will be challenging.
Global context and ‘permacrisis’ management
We completed our look forward with some quick reflections on two of the candidate topics for LEDC shots in December that we eventually decided against – the success of Trump in the US election and the seeming low key outcomes of COP29.
Trump’s reelection may have many impacts, changing literally from month to month. But we need to think about what further restrictions on the ease of world trade might have on export and FDI-driven local growth. The uncertainties of everything from the value of the US$ to international conflicts will raise the risks of inflation, shortages, costs of living and migration crises among others.
Lack of decisive deliverable agreements at COP29 almost certainly suggests local climate change adaptation to extreme weather and ‘natural’ (sic) disasters may be an increasing feature of both medium-term strategy and day-to-day urgent priorities. Can LED and placemaking assimilate perma-crisis and perma-disaster management in our toolkit of intervention strategies and delivery management?
There is much more that could be said about both. But perhaps the overriding point is that global uncertainty and volatility will have a prominent impact on LED and placemaking in your geographies and communities in 2025. Policies and strategies need horizon scanning and scenario planning to manage this effectively and ‘development recovery’ approaches to crisis management.
Concluding remarks
The shot format only allows us to deal at a very high level with thoughts about 2025 signature issues. We’d love to receive your feedback and alternative perspectives. And we’d particularly value your ideas on how want LEDC to address these and other major issues in the New Year.
2024 has been an exciting year for LEDC – with some fabulous guests, the new shot format for current affairs, with our fiftieth episode milestone passed in the summer.
We want to make 2025 even better. But until we resume in the New Year, thanks to our guests and listeners for being with us on the LEDC journey. All the best for the holiday season and make the most of any break you have. If we are even half-right with our 2025 thoughts, we will need all the recharge our personal batteries can hold!